Dusting today/tonight; Weather Conference on Sunday

Nowcast

While many people have been talking about this upcoming clipper as packing a punch, I doubt Millersville will get much out of it. My call is a dusting… nothing on the roads for sure, but maybe some pretty snow on top of the grass.

Short-term forecast

This weekend will finally bring some warmth to the area (again). Temperatures will actually be seasonable- in the 40s. On Monday temps will get up into the 50s! After that, temps will be pretty seasonable (upper 40s).

Following todays storm, conditions will be fairly pleasant until Tuesday, when we will see some heavy rains not unlike this past Tuesday.

Long-term outlook

Apparently, for the past couple of days there have been some monster storms showing up on the GFS for sometime between… the 6th and the 16th, according to Eric Horst (of the MU weather center), while everybody’s favorite forecaster hypemaster, Henry, has been calling the 8th for a big storm. Both of these calls were made yesterday (the 28th), 8-10 days out, so I’m gonna take them with a hunk of salt. However, my roommate and I have been watching the model trends the past few days for far out… we have a running joke of making forecasts over 200+ hours out and saying “Oh man… here it comes… the big one!” The other day when he was going over the GFS he showed me the 13th and said, ” Here it is…. Armageddon!” I, jokingly, posting this date on my white board. And ya know what? I don’t think that date may be far off! It’s too far out to tell now, but a big storm over our spring break may bring some heavy snow to the region. I’ll post more next week as the time frame approaches.

In other news

I’m heading off to “Stormfest” in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Speakers include…

Jamie Rhome from National Hurricane Center (NHC), Kevin Scharfenberg from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and Bob Hamilton from the National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY

I’ll be taking pictures (as many as I can) and I’ll be sure to post about my experience at my first weather conference when I get back.

Sledding in the snow

While we didn’t get too much- about 2.2 inches total- it was good enough to sled. Factor in the below-freezing temperatures and freezing rain that fell and you have one good recipe for sledding! At 5 AM Millersville decided on a two-hour delay, but then three hours later at 8 AM made the call to cancel everything. A bunch of us Freshman went sledding- first near the baseball field near our dorm, then over to a local golf course, then back to the baseball field at night. It was a lot of fun!

Anywho, after this storm there’s nothing too big on the way. An all-rain storm is likely to hit the area Tuesday and another storm with a possibility of a wintry mix on Saturday. Also on Saturday I will be heading off to a weather conference in Pittsburgh hosted by CUP (as far as I know, at least). I’ll also work on a verification to post about the past month’s weather. Should be a good time!

Quick storm update

Doing it Henry-style… haha. Just a quick update with this storm. It has started to snow in Millersville. We currently have a trace amount on the sidewalk, hardly anything on the roads. More is coming. My final numbers are 2-4 inches of snow, plus a trace amount of ice. Snow will fall mostly overnight, then switching over to sleet and then freezing rain in the early morning hours. Photos and more tomorrow.

Radar source: Accuweather.com

Today’s snow to be light; lunar eclipse tonight; late-week storm filled with uncertainty

Well, Campus Weather Service and Millersville’s Weather Station Manager Eric Horst finally came around to agreeing with me, albeit late. On Tuesday, he posted “A coating to 2 inches of snow looks likely for Wednesday” and then followed up this morning by saying “A coating to one inch is the most likely outcome.” I said coating to one inch late Monday night, and I stand by my prediction.

I’m hoping this storm will clear out quickly because tonight there will be a total lunar eclipse from 10-10:51 PM EST. I’m hoping to bring my camera and tripod to the top of the parking garage to take some pictures of this cool event. I just hope my camera won’t mind the  predicted 12 – 16 low temps tonight!

This Friday-ish storm is still filled with uncertainty. I think it could be a wintry mix, but I think we will get at least an inch of snow before a switch over. I’ll post more tonight or tomorrow about how it’s looking.

Warm morning today and possibly weekend snow?

Well, even I was low with my temperature predicition for Monday. At Campus Weather Service, I tried to justify a mid-40s high for Monday but was shot down and the number we put down ended up being in the upper 30’s. This was still warmer than what the 7-day had and was warmer than what previous shifts were saying, but temps SOARED. It was a consistent 58 most of the morning before shooting up to a high of 67. No, that’s not a typo. Nearly 70! And Campus Weather was calling mid-50s the day before! Wow. Crazy stuff.

Looking ahead, we could be in for a dusting to an inch between Tuesday night and Wednesday, though I don’t think it’ll be as big as some are hyping it to be. I think the next weather maker will be a Friday evening into Saturday morning event that may be snow. I’ll post more about in a few days when I know more. Right now I could see 1-3 inches, if it’s cold enough to snow, that is.

The next storm: Jan 18th storm and my thoughts so far

As the current storm leaves the area my eyes are looking on to the next storm coming up sometime early next week. This next storm will occur from Sunday into Monday. I believe the event will be mostly rain, with the slight possibility of freezing rain at the beginning or end. I don’t know WHY Millerville’s Campus Weather Service has the 7-day outlook having a high (and low) of 34 on Sunday and highs in the upper 30s on Monday, but I guess they used something other than the GFS model output. I say this because this event looks in every way, shape and form to be a rain event. Everything confirms it. Exact timing isn’t possible right now but I am fairly confident to say this will be an all-rain event. I don’t know why CWS is saying a Wintry Mix… oh well. We’ll see how it pans out as the date approaches!

CoolWx.com to host a World Forecasting Contest

CoolWx.com, a site ran by Professor Robert Hart of Florida State University, is set to launch a World Forecast Contest. The announcement was posted on the website recently (or, in between my last visit and now) and links to a placeholder page with a few details. It will be interesting because until now, the site has been purely data without any messages from Dr. Hart or any means of feedback besides an email link. The message announcing the new contest states that participants will be able to forecast temp, precip and wind for a particular city that will change each month. I’ll be sure to post when this contest will start and all the details when I see it. Interesting, nonetheless.

Gaige Hall, looking ENE

Gaige Hall, looking ENE

Originally uploaded by jowe

Steamy steps

Steamy steps

Originally uploaded by jowe

Ice on car

Ice on car, originally uploaded by jowe.