All signs point towards the possibility of a white Christmas

We’re in a stormy pattern (already referred to as the “storm train” in some media), and this just might mean a white Christmas for those of us in the mid-atlantic region. While anyone can point towards to the sway of the weather models back and forth between solutions, but something I see that is making me feel confident is the NAO. Specifically, a switch of the NAO from positive to negative.

Now, according to history, a negative NAO will typically mean a big Nor’easter, but I also am a firm believer that a change in the NAO (or any other teleconnection indicy) from positive to negative can bring about substantial weather. Here’s the latest:

The bottom two graphs are of the NAO; the left from the ESRL (Earth Science Research Lab), the right from NCEP. NCEP’s model is usually more trusted, and if you look along the time series, you will see that the changeover occurs right around Christmas. I’ll keep an eye on this, and I’m hoping for a white Christmas!