All signs point towards the possibility of a white Christmas

We’re in a stormy pattern (already referred to as the “storm train” in some media), and this just might mean a white Christmas for those of us in the mid-atlantic region. While anyone can point towards to the sway of the weather models back and forth between solutions, but something I see that is making me feel confident is the NAO. Specifically, a switch of the NAO from positive to negative.

Now, according to history, a negative NAO will typically mean a big Nor’easter, but I also am a firm believer that a change in the NAO (or any other teleconnection indicy) from positive to negative can bring about substantial weather. Here’s the latest:

The bottom two graphs are of the NAO; the left from the ESRL (Earth Science Research Lab), the right from NCEP. NCEP’s model is usually more trusted, and if you look along the time series, you will see that the changeover occurs right around Christmas. I’ll keep an eye on this, and I’m hoping for a white Christmas!

Morning update – Early/Mid Dec East Coast event

Well there is certainly a lot going on today… severe weather in the south central US, Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, and seemingly mild (but actually seasonal) temperatures here in Millersville.

WeatherTAP National Radar (Winter Mask) 12/09/2008 at 14:25z

Due to some technical problems, the Millersville Observations are not operational right now, but I’m using a few other local Personal Weather Stations (PWS) from Wunderground and other sites. From what I can tell on Wunderground’s Wundermap, temperatures are inching towards 40 in the mid-atlantic region as I write this, and they should be slowly but steadily rising up throughout the day, with a high around 49. Clouds are just about overcast now and I expect this not to change for a few days.

The Thursday night / Friday event seems to have all but disappeared from the latest (12z) NAM run (which, on the latest run, goes out till Friday evening), though the HPC’s forecast (issued very early this morning) still the idea of some sort of secondary low.  Last night’s GFS run is still showing the low forming south and moving up the coast. This solution, however, leads to a more east track. However, knowing how low the resolution of the GFS is (compared to the NAM and actual obs), this sort of difference isn’t too big of a variance 60+ hours out.

Upcoming complex system – a one-two punch

This upcoming system has a lot of things going on, and I couldn’t resist posting about it. In case this is your first time reading, I post mostly to keep track of what I think is going to happen, and see how I do. I figure some real world forecasting (and the ever-important verification) will somehow help me become a better meteorologist. At least that’s the goal!

Alright, back on topic: What’s in store for the Millersville/Lancaster/SE PA area over the rest of the week.

Tuesday: A strong warm front will move in… the low will be recorded around 1am or so as the front approaches… 7am it will be below freezing still, by mid-morning warm up to the mid-40s, and from there temperatures will start to plateau. Skies will be overcast all day and night… and that goes for the entire rest of the week, as well.

Tuesday Night: Temps will be in the mid to upper 40s throughout the night under overcast skies… moderate winds out of the southeast, turning south by day break. Possible isolated shower late.

Wednesday: Temps rise slowly throughout the day… possibly only four or five degrees from the low- this, of course, due to the overcast skies. We might hit 50 or even a few degrees higher. A mostly rainy day… most of the rain will be in the morning to mid-afternoon period. Winds will be moderate out of the south.

Wednesday night: The rain continues… we’ll probably receive over a half inch by late Wednesday night. I’d say about 0.8 inches total for this part of the storm. Winds will die down and begin to come out of the southwest. Temps will fall below freezing.

Thursday: Rain finally tapering off! Skies will be partly sunny to mostly sunny for the day, with a high struggling to reach 40 or so.

Friday: I’ll be back to update this… at first glance its looking like there is a chance of a coastal low riding up the east coast, which could spell snow! I’ll delve deeper tomorrow.

Severe weather south; Rainy weekend

We’re entering a cooler, wetter period after a few mild days this week. With some severe weather to our south, there is a possibility of a rumble of thunder outside overnight, but nothing too bad. The big story will be the amount of precip we receive, which is the reason we’re currently under a flood watch. Over an inch of precip will accumulate overnight tonight and tomorrow, with temperatures struggling to reach 60. Skies will start to break on Saturday morning, but it won’t be long before cloud cover returns at night to bring the low chance of a passing shower. Sunday will be more of the same, with overcast skies and rain. On both Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will rise into the mid-60s and won’t be back to seasonable for a while.

Long-term

Looking at the Seasonal Forecasts from the Physical Sciences Division of the Earth System Research Laboratory (part of NOAA), it appears that May will be warmer than average. However, with a cool start to the month, I think seeing temps in the 80s will be likely into the middle and late parts of the month. As far as precip goes, it should be just-at or under average. This upcoming wet pattern will likely be it for the month, making any other precip events nearly insignificant as far as totals go.

Dusting today/tonight; Weather Conference on Sunday

Nowcast

While many people have been talking about this upcoming clipper as packing a punch, I doubt Millersville will get much out of it. My call is a dusting… nothing on the roads for sure, but maybe some pretty snow on top of the grass.

Short-term forecast

This weekend will finally bring some warmth to the area (again). Temperatures will actually be seasonable- in the 40s. On Monday temps will get up into the 50s! After that, temps will be pretty seasonable (upper 40s).

Following todays storm, conditions will be fairly pleasant until Tuesday, when we will see some heavy rains not unlike this past Tuesday.

Long-term outlook

Apparently, for the past couple of days there have been some monster storms showing up on the GFS for sometime between… the 6th and the 16th, according to Eric Horst (of the MU weather center), while everybody’s favorite forecaster hypemaster, Henry, has been calling the 8th for a big storm. Both of these calls were made yesterday (the 28th), 8-10 days out, so I’m gonna take them with a hunk of salt. However, my roommate and I have been watching the model trends the past few days for far out… we have a running joke of making forecasts over 200+ hours out and saying “Oh man… here it comes… the big one!” The other day when he was going over the GFS he showed me the 13th and said, ” Here it is…. Armageddon!” I, jokingly, posting this date on my white board. And ya know what? I don’t think that date may be far off! It’s too far out to tell now, but a big storm over our spring break may bring some heavy snow to the region. I’ll post more next week as the time frame approaches.

In other news

I’m heading off to “Stormfest” in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Speakers include…

Jamie Rhome from National Hurricane Center (NHC), Kevin Scharfenberg from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and Bob Hamilton from the National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY

I’ll be taking pictures (as many as I can) and I’ll be sure to post about my experience at my first weather conference when I get back.

Sledding in the snow

While we didn’t get too much- about 2.2 inches total- it was good enough to sled. Factor in the below-freezing temperatures and freezing rain that fell and you have one good recipe for sledding! At 5 AM Millersville decided on a two-hour delay, but then three hours later at 8 AM made the call to cancel everything. A bunch of us Freshman went sledding- first near the baseball field near our dorm, then over to a local golf course, then back to the baseball field at night. It was a lot of fun!

Anywho, after this storm there’s nothing too big on the way. An all-rain storm is likely to hit the area Tuesday and another storm with a possibility of a wintry mix on Saturday. Also on Saturday I will be heading off to a weather conference in Pittsburgh hosted by CUP (as far as I know, at least). I’ll also work on a verification to post about the past month’s weather. Should be a good time!

Today’s snow to be light; lunar eclipse tonight; late-week storm filled with uncertainty

Well, Campus Weather Service and Millersville’s Weather Station Manager Eric Horst finally came around to agreeing with me, albeit late. On Tuesday, he posted “A coating to 2 inches of snow looks likely for Wednesday” and then followed up this morning by saying “A coating to one inch is the most likely outcome.” I said coating to one inch late Monday night, and I stand by my prediction.

I’m hoping this storm will clear out quickly because tonight there will be a total lunar eclipse from 10-10:51 PM EST. I’m hoping to bring my camera and tripod to the top of the parking garage to take some pictures of this cool event. I just hope my camera won’t mind the  predicted 12 – 16 low temps tonight!

This Friday-ish storm is still filled with uncertainty. I think it could be a wintry mix, but I think we will get at least an inch of snow before a switch over. I’ll post more tonight or tomorrow about how it’s looking.

Warm morning today and possibly weekend snow?

Well, even I was low with my temperature predicition for Monday. At Campus Weather Service, I tried to justify a mid-40s high for Monday but was shot down and the number we put down ended up being in the upper 30’s. This was still warmer than what the 7-day had and was warmer than what previous shifts were saying, but temps SOARED. It was a consistent 58 most of the morning before shooting up to a high of 67. No, that’s not a typo. Nearly 70! And Campus Weather was calling mid-50s the day before! Wow. Crazy stuff.

Looking ahead, we could be in for a dusting to an inch between Tuesday night and Wednesday, though I don’t think it’ll be as big as some are hyping it to be. I think the next weather maker will be a Friday evening into Saturday morning event that may be snow. I’ll post more about in a few days when I know more. Right now I could see 1-3 inches, if it’s cold enough to snow, that is.

The next storm: Jan 18th storm and my thoughts so far

As the current storm leaves the area my eyes are looking on to the next storm coming up sometime early next week. This next storm will occur from Sunday into Monday. I believe the event will be mostly rain, with the slight possibility of freezing rain at the beginning or end. I don’t know WHY Millerville’s Campus Weather Service has the 7-day outlook having a high (and low) of 34 on Sunday and highs in the upper 30s on Monday, but I guess they used something other than the GFS model output. I say this because this event looks in every way, shape and form to be a rain event. Everything confirms it. Exact timing isn’t possible right now but I am fairly confident to say this will be an all-rain event. I don’t know why CWS is saying a Wintry Mix… oh well. We’ll see how it pans out as the date approaches!

What a wintry day!

What can I say? I was proven wrong. Not too much, though. We managed to get about an inch of snow today. It started to fall just as I was getting ready in the morning around 9:00 AM. It continued in varying in intensity but eventually the roads started getting slushy and sidewalks got snowy. Around 2-3 PM, the snow stopped and it appeared to be over. I was thinking that MU would be thinking the same thing and then end up being caught off guard when the sleet started to fall later on. Thankfully, this didn’t happen. Snow began to fall again around 4:00 PM, on the verge between snow and sleet for a while. We got another half-inch or so of snow before the precip switched over to a light sleet, which is what is happing right now at 7:00 PM / 0z.

Over the next few hours the sleet and freezing drizzle will likely tapper off before freezing rain falls in the morning, which will soon after change to a plain, cold rain for the rest of the day. No fun, with a high in the upper 30s  or so.

I’ll post some pictures later on tonight.