Upcoming Winter Weather Event for Feb 12-13

I’m kinda surprised by this upcoming event. I’ve seen it coming and have thought of a freezing rain to plain rain event. However, Millersville’s Campus Weather Service (which I am part of where I help make the Friday Evening forecasts) is calling for a 1-3 inch snow event. That got my attention. And from what I’m seeing, we may have some delays/cancellations tomorrow. I’d love for my evening Calc class to be cancelled, but hey, I’m just being honest here.

Right now, from what I’m seeing, it will surely start as a snow event. How much snow we will get is up for debate. What is going on here is that it will be cold on the surface throughout the day for snow. The problem is aloft. Warm air is supposed to be coming in along with the weak low pressure system. However, the problem is right there: WEAK low pressure. The idea is that the system will be too weak to push the cold air out and we will get more snow than the models are saying. As I see it now, the NAM is going conservative. I trust this model the most right now. Light snow and flurries in the early morning hours and then, as the day begins, sleet to freezing rain throughout the day. How much of it will be freezing before it turns to a plain rain will be the question tomorrow.

I’m going to say up to an inch of snow tomorrow with sleet quickly changing to freezing rain and a plain rain throughout the day. The switchover will likely happen around lunch time. Temps will only be steady or rise for the rest of the day with a “high” low overnight. I hope I’m wrong and we’ll get some good snow and classes will be canceled. I’m thinking it will be more of a nuisance.

Verification and pictures, if I feel necessary, will be posted tomorrow.

Updated: How low will it go?

I’m having a little bet with my roommate for the low tonight, just for kicks. Here’s who’s “competing” and what they are betting.

Matt (my roommate)	7
Me	9
CWS	8
GFS	13
Eta/NAM	8
NGM	15
NWS	8
NDFD / Wunderground	5
Accuweather	9
Weather Channel (online)	13

All forecast lows were retrieved around midnight. I will post results tomorrow for both MU Obs and KLNS.

Updated: Actual low: 8/9 (MU Obs/KLNS) Winners: For MU: Me, AccuWx; For KLNS: CWS, NWS, Eta/NAM.

Warming up… for a few hours

This morning was really nice, spring-like weather. Other then the fact that winds were howling around 20+ MPH, temperatures were in upper 40s, reaching a high of 48 around 7:00 AM. After this temperatures shot down- it was a noticeable difference between 9:20 and and 9:50 when my roommate and I went out to and came back from breakfast this morning. After that, temps hovered around 40 for the remainder of the day with heavy winds, with the highest recorded gust in Millersville being near 40 MPH.

Short Term Forecast

Overnight: Clear. Low near  19.
Thursday: Skies will be clear most of the day, becoming cloudy after sunset. Hi: near 40. Lo: near 30
Friday: I think Friday is going to be an all-rain event, but there’s talk of icing and such. I don’t see it happening, but I’ll post more then.

Long Range Outlook

I don’t see any major storms upcoming. Look for a welcome warm-up the next few days with a chance for precip early in the week. Again, another rain event is likely. Oh well… there’s still a whole lot of winter left to go.

Stormy February Ahead

February looks to be stormy… but that doesn’t mean we’ll see snow. The NAO has been up and down the past few days. I’ve decided to save the NAO Ensemble forecast each day and to, eventually, put together animations to show how the NAO is trending over the course of week. It should be pretty cool to see. It looks cool now even with only a few days of data. I just wish other places put out an NAO forecast or if there was at least a more detailed look at it. Oh well. I hardly understand it as it is. Haha.

As far as the short term goes, Friday looks to be a fun day as a low pressure system develops out of the gulf and rides up inland states before going out to sea. This storm looks to drop a lot of precipitation everywhere it goes, including here in Millersville. With the NAO nuetral, the storm could dump some wintery-type precip, but I don’t think this storm will be anything major. If there is a good chance of snow I’ll post something later on.

I was right!

I’ve been slacking on my posting recently due to getting back to school and such, but I’m back now.

We’ve had a pretty interesting week of weather here in Millersville.  About three inches of  snow fell on Thursday and a light dusting fell on Tuesday. As far as the 13th storm, I was pretty much correct in my prediction of trace. Tuesday’s event was kind of unexpected, lasting about an hour. Thursday’s snow was pretty cool. It snowed all day and finally ended with sleet and freezing drizzle falling into the evening hours… but the snow didn’t last long! Friday, most of the snow melted. What was left froze over last night and remains there this morning.

Short-term

Tonight we may see a shot of snow quickly, but I doubt much of anything will fall here at Millersville. Sunday and Monday will be cold with temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark each day.

Long-range

We may see some light snow Tuesday night. After that there is no certanty as to what the weather pattern may bring us, but it looks to be an active period. The NAO forecast has been going up and down for the rest of the month so there’s not much consistency among the models for the rest of the month either. We’ll just have to wait and see!

Coming up in a little bit: Some pictures from the snow on Thursday.

Calling Trace

I was excited for this storm, but as temperature becomes an issue now, I’m going to call trace for the storm- less than an inch. However, if the temperature dips a few degrees, we could be in for something like 4 inches of snow. Though, I don’t see that happening right now. We’ll see. For now, I’m saying trace to an inch if temperatures don’t dip too low- which I don’t see them doing.

Back to Millersville tomorrow!

Mid-January storm possibilities

Well it looks like we’re in store for cold, storms, and maybe both occurring at the same time as we move in to January… don’t get too excited, though.

Short Range (Next 5 days)

Next chance of precip is going to be in the morning hours Wed. Jan 9th, but nothing substantial for those of us in SE PA. The next storm will be very well developed from what I can see, with the low getting down to 996 and will be west of us in PA, moving north-northeast towards Maine. Significant rainfall is possible in SE PA all day Friday.

Long Range (6 days +)

Here’s where it gets interesting… for a number of reasons. For one, theres a big storm that roars up on Tuesday (Jan. 15th)… but it’s way off the East coast. However, this happened last time we had a big northeast storm, with the storm coming closer and closer inland as the time became closer. We’ll see if this happens again. As of the latest run, but it looks like it will be cold enough for snow. After this point the GFS goes ahead and has no idea what to do, making up stuff as it goes along. Another reason of interest? The NAO. Check this out:

Click the image for the latest NAO forecast. What I can tell from this is after Jan. 8th, the models are very inconsistent, especially past the 16th (the dotted vertical line). Remember, negative NAO can mean northeast snow storm. A zero or positive value, not so much. For more information about what the NAO is, see Answers.com.

Weekend Storm Verification

Forecast period: Saturday Dec. 15 (afternoon) through Monday Dec. 17 (afternoon)
Location: Delaware Valley
Verification Station: KPHL

Saturday Afternoon

Prediction: Clouds start to move in and temperatures drop. Hi: 38 POP: 10% PTYPE: Rain

Actual: Mostly Cloudy all day, Overcast by 5:00pm; Hi: 37; No Precip until night

Saturday Evening/Overnight

Prediction: Temperatures fluctuate, dropping for a time then rising. Under overcast skies, light flurries may fall (though not likely) before giving way to sleet and freezing rain overnight. Lo: 30 POP: 80% PTYPE: Freezing Rain

Actual: Overcast all night, Light Freezing rain to plain light rain (total: 0.86 inches from midnight through 6:00am); temp dropped to 32 before going back up to 40 by 6:00am; Lo: 32

Sunday

Prediction: Temps will rise during the day, with a good amount of rain falling. This will be steady most of the time during the day. Hi: 42 POP: 100% PTYPE: Rain

Actual: Rain tapered off by early afternoon, with no more measurable precip after 3 pm (totaling a mere 0.15 inches); Hi: 44

Sunday Night/Overnight

Prediction: Cold air will rush in as the new low, which develops over D.C. around Sunday morning, pushes northward. This cold air will push all the way out to the coast by Sunday evening, turning any more falling precip to snow. This also has the potential to freeze over any rain, leading to black ice on the roads overnight and into Monday. Lo: 24, maybe even lower POP: 60% PTYPE: Sleet to Snow

Actual: Cold air did rush with a LOT of wind (top gust at KPHL was 52 MPH, between 6 and 7 pm), however, there was NO precip whatsoever. Lo: 32 (Wind Chill low was 18)

Monday Morning

Prediction: Precip is done with and skies clear up, leading to cooler temps. Travel conditions potentially hazardous in the morning, especially before sun rise and throughout the morning on back roads. Hi: 34 POP: 10% PTYPE: Snow

Actual: No Precip; Skies had few or scattered clouds all day, with winds around 20 MPH all day; Hi: 37

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Remarks: I was off on the precip timing, with most of it occurring in the early morning hours of Sunday, before dawn. I was also wrong in the fact that we had NO precip Sunday evening, when I gave a POP of 60%. As far as temperatures go, I was within 2-3 degrees each period with the exception of (again) Sunday night. Hmm… maybe it’s a wanting-to-get-off Monday effect on me, despite me being out of school for break and without a job yet… haha. Overall, I would give myself a grade of C for the forecast. I was CLOSE on temps (forecast was made Thursday night, FYI), and had all the right PTYPE’s, but my timing was off with when the majority of the precip would come. Also, I never mentioned wind in any forecast, which was a fault of mine. Oh well- Live and Learn!Temp. accuracy (+ means I was over, – means under): +1, -2, -2, -2, -8, -3

From this, I can learn that my forecasts were, for the majority, always too low.

That’s all for now!