Marking Time ii: College

All signs point towards the possibility of a white Christmas

Joe — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 03:29:45 +0000

We’re in a stormy pattern (already referred to as the “storm train” in some media), and this just might mean a white Christmas for those of us in the mid-atlantic region. While anyone can point towards to the sway of the weather models back and forth between solutions, but something I see that is making me feel confident is the NAO. Specifically, a switch of the NAO from positive to negative.

Now, according to history, a negative NAO will typically mean a big Nor’easter, but I also am a firm believer that a change in the NAO (or any other teleconnection indicy) from positive to negative can bring about substantial weather. Here’s the latest:

The bottom two graphs are of the NAO; the left from the ESRL (Earth Science Research Lab), the right from NCEP. NCEP’s model is usually more trusted, and if you look along the time series, you will see that the changeover occurs right around Christmas. I’ll keep an eye on this, and I’m hoping for a white Christmas!

We just might get snow!

Joe — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 04:45:04 +0000

This situation has been looking pretty upsetting for the past few days… because I really just want to see some snow. But first, what’s been going on.

Verification!

Tues:

I said:

A strong warm front will move in… the low will be recorded around 1am or so as the front approaches… 7am it will be below freezing still, by mid-morning warm up to the mid-40s, and from there temperatures will start to plateau. Skies will be overcast all day and night…

What happened:

Temps rose all night; At 7am we were at 31; We didn’t rise too fast- only at 39 by noon; Max temp for the day was 48; skies were OVC all day, with a scattered/broken lower layer at some points

Not bad for a 0-day forecast.

Wednesday:

What I said:

Temps rise slowly throughout the day… possibly only four or five degrees from the low … We might hit 50 or even a few degrees higher. A mostly rainy day… most of the rain will be in the morning to mid-afternoon period. Winds will be moderate out of the south.

What happened:

We got up to 57! Wow! Rain all day. Winds were out of the south, then changing to out of the west, max sustained at 14 mph.

Now, what’s gone on today and tonight:

Lot’s of rain! The area is under a flood watch, and some parts of metro Philly are under flood warnings (but not flash flood warnings, meaning streams will slowly rise).

I’ve been very pessimistic about the possibility of snow tomorrow (Friday) morning and day, but I think we just might have a shot at a few flakes. I say this due to the fact that the latest NAM run has the 850 temps at -1 C at 7am. This could bring snow, since the snow will have (hopefully) not melted by the 850mb level. I still doubt any real accumulation, but a dusting isn’t out of the question- though I wouldn’t really call it a dusting… more like a layer of cool whip on top of the soaked ground.

Only time will tell!

Morning update – Early/Mid Dec East Coast event

Joe — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 15:24:39 +0000

Well there is certainly a lot going on today… severe weather in the south central US, Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, and seemingly mild (but actually seasonal) temperatures here in Millersville.

WeatherTAP National Radar (Winter Mask) 12/09/2008 at 14:25z

Due to some technical problems, the Millersville Observations are not operational right now, but I’m using a few other local Personal Weather Stations (PWS) from Wunderground and other sites. From what I can tell on Wunderground’s Wundermap, temperatures are inching towards 40 in the mid-atlantic region as I write this, and they should be slowly but steadily rising up throughout the day, with a high around 49. Clouds are just about overcast now and I expect this not to change for a few days.

The Thursday night / Friday event seems to have all but disappeared from the latest (12z) NAM run (which, on the latest run, goes out till Friday evening), though the HPC’s forecast (issued very early this morning) still the idea of some sort of secondary low. Last night’s GFS run is still showing the low forming south and moving up the coast. This solution, however, leads to a more east track. However, knowing how low the resolution of the GFS is (compared to the NAM and actual obs), this sort of difference isn’t too big of a variance 60+ hours out.

Upcoming complex system – a one-two punch

Joe — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 05:24:47 +0000

This upcoming system has a lot of things going on, and I couldn’t resist posting about it. In case this is your first time reading, I post mostly to keep track of what I think is going to happen, and see how I do. I figure some real world forecasting (and the ever-important verification) will somehow help me become a better meteorologist. At least that’s the goal!

Alright, back on topic: What’s in store for the Millersville/Lancaster/SE PA area over the rest of the week.

Tuesday: A strong warm front will move in… the low will be recorded around 1am or so as the front approaches… 7am it will be below freezing still, by mid-morning warm up to the mid-40s, and from there temperatures will start to plateau. Skies will be overcast all day and night… and that goes for the entire rest of the week, as well.

Tuesday Night: Temps will be in the mid to upper 40s throughout the night under overcast skies… moderate winds out of the southeast, turning south by day break. Possible isolated shower late.

Wednesday: Temps rise slowly throughout the day… possibly only four or five degrees from the low- this, of course, due to the overcast skies. We might hit 50 or even a few degrees higher. A mostly rainy day… most of the rain will be in the morning to mid-afternoon period. Winds will be moderate out of the south.

Wednesday night: The rain continues… we’ll probably receive over a half inch by late Wednesday night. I’d say about 0.8 inches total for this part of the storm. Winds will die down and begin to come out of the southwest. Temps will fall below freezing.

Thursday: Rain finally tapering off! Skies will be partly sunny to mostly sunny for the day, with a high struggling to reach 40 or so.

Friday: I’ll be back to update this… at first glance its looking like there is a chance of a coastal low riding up the east coast, which could spell snow! I’ll delve deeper tomorrow.

Severe weather south; Rainy weekend

Joe — Fri, 09 May 2008 03:10:09 +0000

We’re entering a cooler, wetter period after a few mild days this week. With some severe weather to our south, there is a possibility of a rumble of thunder outside overnight, but nothing too bad. The big story will be the amount of precip we receive, which is the reason we’re currently under a flood watch. Over an inch of precip will accumulate overnight tonight and tomorrow, with temperatures struggling to reach 60. Skies will start to break on Saturday morning, but it won’t be long before cloud cover returns at night to bring the low chance of a passing shower. Sunday will be more of the same, with overcast skies and rain. On both Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will rise into the mid-60s and won’t be back to seasonable for a while.

Long-term

Looking at the Seasonal Forecasts from the Physical Sciences Division of the Earth System Research Laboratory (part of NOAA), it appears that May will be warmer than average. However, with a cool start to the month, I think seeing temps in the 80s will be likely into the middle and late parts of the month. As far as precip goes, it should be just-at or under average. This upcoming wet pattern will likely be it for the month, making any other precip events nearly insignificant as far as totals go.

Humid morning with showers possible later

Joe — Wed, 07 May 2008 12:40:46 +0000

It’s humid out there right now. Temperatures are rising through the 60s and will likely hit 80 or so, depending on cloud cover. The rising heat will cause some instability in the atmosphere, leading to some afternoon showers possible. This happened yesterday, too, but Millersville was lucky enough to dodge the precip.

Tonight will bring mostly cloud skies as a front moves through, increasing the chance of showers. Total precip amounts will likely be trace or just above it. Temps will be relatively mild in the 50s.

Thursday will bring cloudy skies and a higher chance of showers than the previous evening, probably becoming steady. Temps will struggle to reach the low 70s… it all depends on the amount of cloud cover we receive in the morning and how much we can warm up.

Friday, being move-out day, will be overcast with rain off and on. Temps will reach the mid-to-upper 60s.

Rain soaks the Mid-Atlantic

Joe — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:36:26 +0000

It’s raining steady outside my window and all over the Mid-Atlantic region today. There is a small (very small) possibility of thunderstorms today, but I don’t see that happening for the Lancaster area, nor anywhere north.

Rain will likely accumulate to less than an inch today… If I had to say a number, I’d say 0.75 inches. Currently (at 1:00 PM) MU has received just under 0.6 inches thus far today, with a few more shots of rain on the way.

Tomorrow the rain will be gone for the most part but the clouds will continue to linger during the day, not clearing out until around Dinner time. Temperatures will, like today, hover in the low to mid-50s.

Tomorrow night will be very cold- near-freezing temperatures! The clear skies will help temperatures go low and I would not be suprised to see a low of 32 overnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a few clouds in the afternoon, leading to the possibility of a few showers overnight. High: mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Clouds clearing leading to a sun-and-cloud filled sky most of the day. High: Nearing 70.

Friday: Clear most of the day with very warm temperatures. A nice, typical Spring day. High: Upper 70s.

Saturday: Warm, with the possibility of some afternoon showers (to ruin any picnics, of course- haha). High: Upper 70s.

That’s all for now!

Millersville Water Tower and Lightning

Joe — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:13:10 +0000

Millersville Water Tower and Lightning

Originally uploaded by jowe

Click the picture to see a detailed description.

Updates are on the way!

And now for something completely different

Joe — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 20:50:43 +0000

I’m going to start to use this blog to post about my attempt to use WordPress to run my college’s newspaper. I hope to attract other college newspaper webmasters who can share their experiences.

First, a few questions and answers:

1. Why WordPress? Why not Drupal?

I know WP pretty well. I like it. I know there’s a huge community for support and it’s always being updated and worked on. I was on the verge of using Drupal but I decided I would at least try and make WordPress work.

2. Why not just use CollegePublisher, like most college papers?

Because I don’t want to. College Publisher is easy. It’s free- they simply require that you have their advertisements on your site, so they make money. So really, it’s not free: it costs space. I don’t like that. And I think I can do a better job with WordPress than I would with College Publisher.

3. Technical Details and such…

I’m using WordPress 2.5, and I’ll update as new versions come out. I’m using DreamHost as my host right now, on a current client’s website in a secret sub-directory. I plan on switching the already registered domain and hosting to site5 when needed, as I think they will be a much better host than dreamhost (but that’s a whole ‘nother story).

NAO about to drop below zero for first time since mid-December

Joe — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 19:26:55 +0000

The NAO is about to drop below zero for the first time since mid-December. FYI, I don’t know too much about the NAO other then when it goes negative, and we have a northeast storm, it CAN be pretty intense, and mean snow for the Philly/Lancaster area. Well, it’s finally dipping down below the zero line. Is it too late for snow? I think there’s a small chance for a dusting the rest of the season, but I don’t see any more major snow accumulation anytime this season.

Here’s today’s NAO for your viewing pleasure. The black line is what it has been, and the red lines line indicate different model’s forecasts’ for the next week or so. (Click the image to enlarge.)